As a follow-up to our last article on the Housing Affordability Threshold, we wanted to see what the future holds for Lake County seniors regarding the possibilities of being priced out of their homes due to increasing property taxes. Here are the source documents that we used to extrapolate the numbers through the year 2030:
A. Community Solutions Report: Seniors in Lake County – Seniors in Lake County
From this report we used the following figures:
(1) Current percentage of seniors paying more than 30% of their annual income for rent – homeowners and renters [27.1%, 53.5%]
(2) The percentage of seniors living in assisted living facilities or nursing homes [3.2%]
(3) The percentage of seniors living in their homes, or as renters [82% , 18%]
B. U.S. Census Data for Lake County – U.S. Census Population Data for Lake County
(1) From this report we used the population numbers given for the years 2010 and 2018 [230,050, 230,514]
From these reports we tried to answer the following questions:
(1) The estimated Lake County population for the years 2020 – 2030
(2) The number of seniors living in assisted care facilities or nursing homes for the years 2020 – 2030.
(3) The number of seniors not living in assisted care facilities or nursing homes for the years 2020 – 2030
(4) The number of seniors as homeowners versus renters for the years 2020 – 2030.
(5) The number of senior homeowners and renters exceeding the 30% HAT for the years 2020 – 2030.
Here is our schedule that assumes that the total population growth is constant and the HAT % and the % of the population in the nursing homes also remain constant through the year 2030. The numbers highlighted in red are the factors from the source documents, the balance is extrapolated by LFC.
In summary, the Lake County population growth is assumed to be constant through the year 2030 and it is estimated to be 231,210. It is a very small increase (+696, or +.3%) from the estimated 230,514 in 2018.
Those over 60 years of age will total ~78,380 (33.9% of the total population), which represents a 14,480 (22.7%) [78,380 – 63,900] increase since 2018. There will be ~2,508 living in nursing homes, and 75,872 will be homeowners (~62,215) or renters (~13,657).
Assuming that the HAT % remains constant at 27.1% for homeowners, and 53.5% for renters, in the year 2030 there will be ~16,680 homeowners, and ~ 7,306 renters exceeding the 30% Housing Affordability Threshold.
The number of seniors exceeding the HAT % will represent 31.9% of all seniors, and 10.5% of the population.
With the number of property tax levies that are continually being thrust upon the Lake County citizens, we find it highly unlikely that those exceeding the HAT % will remain constant. The only question is how high will they go? To be conservative with our numbers, in our next analysis, we assumed that the % of seniors living in nursing homes will increase to 4.2% in 2020, while the HAT % for homeowners will increase to 28.1% and renters will increase to 54.5%. This represents a 1% increase in those factors.
With the small 1% increase in the percentages, the numbers indicate that an additional ~501 seniors will exceed the 30% Housing Affordability Threshold in the year 2030. [24,668 – 24,167]. The total of 24,668 represents 10.7% of the total Lake County population, and 32.9% of the senior population. In our opinion, this is a very significant portion of the population, and we have real concerns that the number will skyrocket if all of the property tax levies continue to pass.
A very important factor not considered is the number of Lake County residents under 60 years of age that are already close to the 30% factor. Also, a lot of money is being spent trying to attract those under 30 into Lake County, or to remain in Lake County. If the rental property is more than 30% of their annual income, it becomes an impediment to them moving into, or staying within the County.