Lake County CoVid-19 Statistics…seeing Red

[LFC Comments: Thanks to our contributor, Chuck Laughlin, for this article on CoVid-19 statistics for Lake County.]

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Should We Worry About A “Red” Emergency Status?

Written by Chuck Laughlin
October 25, 2020

This is what I sent out in response to an inquiry I received recently about the COVID virus.  Thought I might share it with you.  Otherwise, a “red” emergency status could be a little scary.

Lake County is red because it has met four of the seven indicators:

  • New cases per capita (an infection rate greater than 0.05% of the population over the last two weeks)
  • New cases increase (increasing number of new cases for five consecutive days anytime in the past three weeks)
  • Non-congregate cases (greater than 50% of the new cases are from non-congregate settings) [LFC Add: Non-Congregate is basically isolation, or not with other individuals or groups- communal living.]
  • Outpatient visits (increasing number of outpatient visits for five consecutive days where the patients have COVID like symptoms and are confirmed or suspected to have COVID)

You can see the data by going to the link below and then selecting Lake as the county.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/public-health-advisory-system/

As you will see, the more serious indicators (i.e. ED visits, hospital admissions, and bed occupancy) have not been triggered.

Also, there is no indicator relating to the number of deaths.  So, technically, we could be in a perpetual state of purple (the highest degree of public health emergency) without a single person dying from the virus.

So while we have met four of the indicators, I think the bar has been set pretty low for achieving a “red” emergency status.

The actual criterion for “new cases per capita” is expressed as 50 new cases per 100,000 residents.  Since Lake County has about 230,000 residents, this amounts to a cut off point of 115 new cases per two weeks or an average of 8 cases per day for two weeks.  The average for the past two weeks was 15 cases per day or 207 total cases.  The 15 cases per day is equivalent to infecting 0.0065% of the residents in Lake County each day.  At this rate it would take 153 days to infect 1% of the residents in Lake County.

Hope this was informative.  Please let me know if you have any other questions that I might be able to answer.

Chuck

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[LFC Comments: It appears to us that the Lake County Health Department has overreacted when they limit the number of spectators to view a child playing indoor hockey at the Mentor Ice rink. Only one adult is permitted per child. This has shut out grandparents and one parent and siblings. If masks are the key to solving the problem, as we have been told ad nauseam, we fail to see the logic. For grandparents, they recognize these are lost opportunities that they can never get back.]



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