(LFC Comments: Many thanks to the Geauga patriot, Jim MacNeal, for this scholarly article on the COVID-19 pandemic.)
COVID 19 Epidemiological Factors in Public Health Response 23 May 2020
Opinion Only-Not A Prescription!
Written by : Jim MacNeal of Geauga County
In October 2019 a strange pneumonia-like disease was observed in Wuhan, China and named SARS2 Corona Virus ID 19. COVID 19 was born.
China halted air travel from Wuhan within China but continued Wuhan air travel to the rest of the world, spreading the infection. For 6 critical weeks, China kept the outbreak secret, denying the world the opportunity to prepare for the pandemic.
China hoarded most of the PPE in the world.
During the ensuing pandemic, China cut supply of PPE to the rest of the world. China even threatened to halt shipments of critical drugs to America.
This was only an accident until it happened. Communist China’s actions after the accident amount to an act of war. Many lives and Tens of Trillions of dollars have been lost, ALL directly due to Communist China’s act of war.
After we solve the COVID 19 problem, and we WILL solve it, there will be a day of reckoning. But ONLY if the right person is in the White House. What would happen with ANYONE other than Trump in that job, when we need a brave and inspiring leader to face the Chinese Communists and exact retribution for their war crimes? WE must be motivated to work hard for President trump’s re-election. God help us if he does not win.
1.0 CORONA VIRUS ID 19 aka COVID 19 (in my shorthand CV19)
CV19 is a SARS virus; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. Its surface has spikes resembling a corona or crown. CV19 affects primarily ADULTS. Children 18 and under are 1.7% of cases. CV19 is most severe in folks over 65 years old and those with underlying health conditions: cardio-pulmonary, diabetes, obesity. 97.7% of healthy younger people who have had it don’t remember being sick or had very mild cases. About 2% of those become VERY ill. 0.3% of these under 65 years old who are infected will die.
2.0 How Viruses Infect
Virus is not alive because it cannot reproduce without a host cell. Viruses’ spikes punch holes in the cell wall of normal cells, then inject their genetic material into the host cell. The host cell divides, making 2 virus cells instead of 2 normal cells.
3.0 CV19 Similarity to Flu
Figure 18 shows historical hospitalizations from Influenza A, B and CV19. 2020 was a hard flu year in general, then came CV19. Hospitalizations are similar between the 3 viruses. CV19 did not produce more hospital cases than the other 2 flus. All respiratory viruses and flus are spread by being too close, for too long, to an infectious person’s talking, singing, laughing, sneezing, or coughing. Touching contaminated surfaces, then touching the face, eyes, nose, mouth is bad. Wash or sanitize your hands frequently. I wash my face a lot too.
4.0 How Airborne SARS Virus Epidemics Normally Operate (minus vaccine)
Epidemiologists use “SIR” graphs to illustrate epidemics. S=Susceptible, I = Infectious, R = Resistant.
Figure 3 shows how a SARS epidemic spreads without any Quarantine. With 10MM people, 597 will die. Eventually susceptible people either develop immunity or they die. At that point we have achieved “Herd Immunity.” No one else can become infected. This is NATURE.
5.0 What Quarantine can do-TIMING IS EVERYTHING!
Quarantines can improve the outcome of epidemics. But if too early it “flattens the curve” but extends the epidemic postponing herd immunity. That makes the virus rebound in a “spike” (watch for this!) and last 9 months instead of 4 months. This means more ultimate cases and more death. Too late and it was not necessary because it can’t make a significant difference. Mistimed quarantines, increase death and suffering, destroy the economy and deprive people of their rights. Governor DeWine and Dr. Acton’s quarantine was too soon.
Another round of quarantine will destroy the economy and complete the tyrannical and UNCONSTITUTIONAL destruction of our FREEDOMS. And YES our Healthcare System can handle the Spike because perhaps as much as 30% of our population has already had CV19.
6.0 Optimal Quarantine Time
The best time for Quarantine is at the peak of infections. Figure 14b shows that a 30-45 day intervention AT THE PEAK OF INFECTIONS provides the most rapid development of herd immunity and the lowest number of deaths, with the least disruption of life and the economy.
7.0 Who to Quarantine: the Sick, the Healthy or Everyone?
Quarantining the healthy interferes with achieving Herd Immunity by delaying the time when the healthy get the virus. Their removal from the work force destroys the economy and undermines the viability of Healthcare Systems. The elderly and fragile living in nursing homes should be protectively quarantined. Elderly living independently, by Constitutional personal choice, should self-isolate till the epidemic is over. Children should not be quarantined, nor should healthy adults under 60. They should get exposed and spread the virus to hasten Herd immunity. Some younger healthy people will get severe cases, and a few will die, many times traceable to an undiagnosed underlying condition. We are in a WAR we didn’t start! In WAR casualties and fatalities occur. It is inevitable. It is terrible and regrettable, But we MUST WIN!!
Surgical masks offer little protection for the wearer but do provide a barrier to the wearer’s saliva spray from speaking, sneezing and coughing which carry viruses. Glasses or goggles, used with N95 masks improve protection, but if you REALLY want protection, full face is the only way to go! Gloves help but keep away from face, eyes, etc. Gloves and masks get contaminated and need frequent replacing or decontaminating.
Wear it as your personal choice. I wear mine a lot because I have an immune compromised wife. I hope you will, of your own Constitutional FREE CHOICE, be protective of the vulnerable people among us.
Carry PPE. Wear it if you find yourself among vulnerable people who made a risky choice to be out mixing in with the young healthy crowd. All by FREE CHOICE guided by common sense.
9.0 Summary/Overall Strategy and Tactics as of 23 May 2020
Bottom Line: There are VIRUSES out there that can kill you. The older you are and the more health problems you have the greater is your risk.
By the time a vaccine is developed the epidemic will most likely be over.
The interim strategy must be one to minimize loss of life and preserve our economy and Healthcare system.
Protect the Elderly and Fragile Vulnerables: Quarantine Nursing Homes and prisons! Staff volunteers remain in the facilities 24/7 for 45-60 days with added compensation -“Battle pay.”
Independent Living Elderly and Fragile Vulnerables: STAY HOME by personal Constitutional choice. Use PPE. Curtail visits with ALL people. Think ahead to avoid crowds. Shop and go out early in day. Exercise. Eat well. Live smart. Self-Isolate 45-60 days.
Please do Stay Well! We need you!!
Open Schools and Universities Immediately
Open Ohio. FULLY. NOW!
Achieve Herd Immunity.
WIN with SMART FREEDOM!
Dr. James MacNeal,
My Son who is an ER Doc and Director of 150 Communities’ Fire Departments’ Emergency Medical Services (Paramedics, EMTs, Police, SWAT and First Responders) in Wisconsin and Illinois.
Dr. Knut Wittkowski,
35 year career Epidemiologist, for his graphics and excellent research paper.